OKANAGAN in full-out bear country

I was waiting for the Okanagan numbers patiently and was rewarded.

Here they are

Here's what the board had to say today:

News
July 7, 2010 Shuswap Housing Market Shifts in Favour of Buyers
Sicamous, BC

July 7, 2010 Central Okanagan Housing Market Moves into Buyer’s Cycle
Kelowna, BC

July 7, 2010 Buyer’s Cycle Continues in the North Okanagan Market


Here are some high-lights for the Central region ie Kelowna:

1) +5.7 % more listings than last June
2) -21.7% less sales than last year.
3) 346 sales with a total of 5793 listings = 16.7 months of inventory

In the North Zone the number is 2824 listings and 130 sales = 21 MOI

In the Shushwap Zone we have 29 MOI.

These numbers are so astounding that I have checked them several times. Please feel free to confirm or refute them

Despite lots of graphs on the site, there doesn`t seem to be a mention of average price, HPI, Median price etc. I guess there are too many sub-indices and smaller communities to make it useful.

The bull sure looks to have been slaughtered and slathered in BBQ sauce and is being cooked to a nice sizzle.

Tuesday Tutorials-Distressing Curtain Rod Holders..& a Sneak Peak

Sorry that I am late with the tute:o) The kids have been a little sick, and I just now was able to muster up the energy to sit down and type. This isn't much of a tutorial, but I think you'll get the general idea. So....

Here are some curtain rod hangers that I bought at a yard sale last year. I haven't known quite what to do with them, until I realized that nothing is safe when there is spray paint around:o)

The before picture does not exist b/c I didn't take one, but I did not take the time to spray the back, so this is what the finish was:

A sort of dark cherry finish. I think I bought all 4 for $5, maybe??

Anyway, I spray painted them with some white that I had out in the garage and they all turned out like this:

Now, I thought that would be it...hang 'em and be done. Then I realized that I missed....a lot....which you can't tell from this pic:o) So I decided that I would distress them. That way you would never be able to tell the difference. All you need is some sand paper. Rough up all the edges and make sure to really dig thru the recessed parts. Take as little or as much as you please and you should come up with something that looks a little like this:

I didn't take too much off. Just enough:o)

All four beauts:o)

And now for a sneak peek of the wall color...

Oh yeah, and you can see the rod holders hung:o) I haven't quite got all of the accessorization done, so you'll have to wait  a tiny bit longer;o) I know the suspense is killing you:o)

Some Honey for the bears

The benchmark is out and it shows enough divergence for both bears and bull to be able to toot their horns.

Benchmark is down. So was the average SFH BTW. But a few big sales skew average, so benchmark is even more reliable IMHVO.

Here is the whole package from Mike Stewart's site:

REBGV site

Nothing too dramatic. House prices have stalled and we are now waiting for the next move. No crash. No run-up. Just treading water. Maybe Chad will be right and we just stay here for two years.

A few comments:

Looks like the specuvestors have left Squamish. West Van is now down for the last three years on attached and detached and Maple Ridge is also down over the last three years.

Once again, nothing too dramatic. The market has definitely moved into a different place, with MOI in the 6's, prices stable at best and a huge swathe of listings pulled off the market...

RE moves at glacial speeds. 2008 was an anomaly, a once in a life-time event. The denouement of speculation, which was quickly aborted by the governments coming to the rescue of their pay-masters.

Here are some excellent graphs, as always, from Mohican:

Mohican's site

A Winner and An Outfit

We have a winner! The camera strap cover goes to Jana! I'll be in touch with you soon to hash out the details! Congratulations!!!

*****

I hope that you all had a wonderful Independence Day....ours was "eventful." The babies are sick, so you can imagine how wonderful things are around here right now:o) We did have a moment last night though, that was serene, and almost perfect....back porch, lights were out, citronella candles lit, hubs was playing the guitar, fireworks in the background(so thankful we live out in the country and there isn't a ban on fireworks), and the kids were wrapped up in their blankies(with fevers) each snuggled up in someone's arms. It was perfectly imperfect. I wouldn't have traded it for any other moment. 

I know that I have been sharing a lot of outfits here lately, but usually in the summer time I make a lot of clothing. Summer clothing is much easier to make than winter. Some friends of ours that attend church with my family just had a sweet little one, and I wanted to make something for her. I had this project sitting in my "to-do" basket, originally intending for S.R. to wear it...she obviously got bigger and so there it sat....for over a year. Then baby Cora came along, and I new it had to be for her:o)

I love eyelet. The lace is vintage...something my mother handed down. I can't wait for baby Cora to wear it. Hopefully she will be able to wear it before it turns cold. 

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Tomorrow is Tuesday Tutorials. I'll be sharing a lamp revamp. Enjoy your day!

linking up to Just Something I Whipped Up Monday

Speculation can kill...

The rampant housing speculation in this city has made it the number one industry, topic of conversation and has brought riches to some and misery to others.

There have been many examples in the blogs of locals who have bought multiple units, often with Government backed insurance (? Government blessing too) and have benefited, along with the RE-Industry from this speculation.

Clearly there is housing demand. Clearly the population is growing. So there is pressure on housing stock and prices. Since wages are not keeping up, a greater % of income is being spent by buyers to service their purchases.

The Government cares not one bit that buyers are having to spend 50,60, 70% of their after tax income on servicing mortgages for these bloated assets, but they will quickly run to act at the first sign of significant weakness.

Anyhow if you think that the system is rigged in favour of speculation, and that is causing those wanting to get into the market hard-ship..it could be a LOT worse.

How about speculation that leads to starvation and death. And I don't mean the international arms-dealers (some of whom I hear are based in Vancouver)

We are a global economy and a suspender-clad trader sitting in an investment bank in New York, buying grain for a bet, is literally taking that grain off the plate of a poor person.

Goldman and Friends take on the poor.

And if the bet goes wrong, Uncle Sam will be there to help pay the Investment banks losses. Nice to have

Friends in high places

Our current political system is set up to protect powerful speculators, here and in the US.

21st century trick ...

Once upon a time, there was a gasoline called 97. The cost of this item was $1.80. One day, the governing body wanted to increase the price to $2.10. However, the governing body knows that if they simply increase price, that will affect their popularity. Which in turn affect their eligibility to continue to be governing body in next election.

Hence they come up with a perfect idea. They first introduce another brand called 95. Actually this is a much lower quality product than 97. In short, 97 simply means there is at least 97% of pure petrol in the gasoline. On the other hand, 95 only has 95% purity. However, they push out 95 as if it is a better quality product. They even add some 'addictive' into 95 to justify their claim its a better product. It was presented in a way that 95 will replace 97, and stay at the same price at $1.80

More than 90% of the consumer fall for it. Hence the transition of 97 to 95 went through smoothly. Majority of the consumers pay the same price for a lower quality gasoline while thinking they enjoy a great quality petrol. This is the power of marketing ...

A few more months pass by, its about time to gain even more profit. Hence 97 is released to the market again. It was released silently and the price of 97 is $2.10. Now this time they leave it to individual vendor to tell consumer how 97 is better than 95.

16.7% of profit has been gained without a single complain from the public. You have to admit this is a fantastic marketing gimme. Even if you see it coming like I did, even if you wrote letter into the authority request for action taken .... but the majority of the consumers were falling for it, hence there is really nothing you can do about it, like I was, no matter how hard I tried. We just have to admit ... it was a gimme well played.

I waited more than 6 months to release this article. What do you think ? Do you still think this governing body has taken good care of your interest ? Or do you believe this article has some truth ?

Jigging...

Jigging is a form of fishing where the lure is moved up and down in the water until the fish strikes.

Looks like that is exactly what is happening in our RE market. A little movement up and a little down, until a buyer gives up and strikes...

We were down on detached in May but up in apartments. Now we have a reversal, down in apartments and up in detached.

These are average prices, and are from Larry Yatter...much kudos to him again for being the first out with these.

Average prices from Yattermatters

A little up and a little down - jigging. BTW- I will say it again, as I have said before, I cannot see how the B of C can raise rates. With a shaking hand and sweaty armpits they raised it 0.25% and now we have enough weakening to make them regret even that.

What we bears will need to depend on is (in no particular order):

1) Weakening economic out-look making housing even more unaffordable despite these low rates.

2) A change in investor sentiment. Two months of drops would have done it. And maybe bench-mark and median will support this. However we may have to wait another month. Even head-lines of economic weakness may bring caution.

3) A reduction in off-shore demand. Lets watch this as an indicator:

Shanghai market

4) A retrenchment in Government spending. Harper is already talking about pulling out of deficit and you can expect Provincial cut-backs to continue too.

1 and 4 are double edge swords. Who wants RE to drop because our neighbours are losing their jobs? It would have been better to raise rates, nip the monster early and then drop rates again with the next weakness (which may be starting already)

But it was not to be. We can blame the politicians, but we want everything and they give it to us.

Victoria sales/listing stats