Banks Flip...flop

Last year there was no bubble, then there would be a mild correction, then a bigger one and now maybe not. 

That sort of summarizes the sequences of housing reports from the big banks. 

I guess no one really has a clue, but it is not acceptable to say that!

Here is TD in June calling for a 15% drop across Canada (that would be much larger in Vancouver) and would be financially very significant.

Now they say the drop will be 10% and maybe even flat because things are getting better.

Not so says the Royal, things are getting worse!

Scotiabank's CEO just said today- 'we get a soft-landing at worst'.

So place your bets and take your picks. We are certainly seeing all the metrics eroding here and prices heading down. Hard to see what the catalyst for a renewed rise here would be?

We have Provincial debt exceeding expectations, we have a Chinese slow-down, we have a change in psychology and the Bank of Canada and Feds are on the side of caution now (not that there is much more they can do anyway having used of most of their bullets)

Slap Yo Momma Biscuits

 My best friend from high school gave me a recipe for biscuits when I got married. I never used it because I already had a biscuit recipe. I thought mine was the best in the world, and proudly looked down my nose at other biscuits, and their inferior ingredients.

Well I ran out of my usual "superior" ingredients, and decided that I would try this "inferior" biscuit recipe. This poor recipe had sat un-used for almost 10 years in my recipe book.

It called for 2 ingredients. 

I scoffed. 

I mixed, rolled out, cut and baked, thinking to myself, "I hope these will do."

I humbly ask forgiveness from my dear friend and her ROCKIN' biscuits. They were not inferior at all! Not only were they extremely light and fluffy but they were 'slap yo momma' good!

So are you ready to try these for yourself?

Here's what you need and what to do:

1 pint of whipping cream

3 cups of self rising flour

Preheat oven to 400 degrees. 

Mix ingredients by hand. Roll out on floured surface. Cut with biscuit cutter and bake.

I told you it was easy...now go make you some biscuits, and don't wait 10 years before making them like I did;o)

Little Red Riding Hood Dress

A few weeks ago, I got the Kelly's Kids catalog in the mail. I love looking at all of their beautiful clothing. It's especially fun to get some inspiration from there.

I found the cutest little Red Riding Hood Dress, and reeeally wanted to make it. I didn't have the corduroy fabric, but I did have something similar in shade.

 After I made the dress, I asked my friend who has her own monogramming biz, called Sisterbug, to find a little red riding hood applique.

She can always find what I need!

Isn't Red the sweetest looking thing?

 This is one of the first dresses that S.R. was excited about in a long time. I can't wait to put her in it!!

Gearing Up for all kinds of fun!

I have missed you all...have you missed me?;o) Last week I was M.I.A. because the hubs was working from home...which means he had the one and only computer in the house. 

So I haven't been able to fill you in on what I have been up to. I have lots to share, but I'll share a little at a time, so that your brain doesn't explode:o)

Anyway, I'm sure you all have noticed that football season is in full swing. I have always wanted to do a kick off party, but never got around to doing it until this season.

 The hubs is a big University of Alabama fan. 

So we invited some of our close buds(also BAMA fans) over for a taco bar, and had fun watching the game while the kiddos played the night away.

Below was the set up for the table. I kept the snacky foods in the living room for quick access, and the rest of the dinner food was in the kitchen.

I made this yummy....let me re-phrase...oh, so delicious caramel corn for my guests to take home with them.

 I filled these glass jars(dollar tree) with the caramel corn. I added the ribbon and the little football cutouts.

 You can find the recipe and the cutouts over at The Party Press. You really need to make this stuff...for reals.

 Here's a shot of all the babies...they were so good!! They played so well, and laughed the whole night. It was GREAT!!

I can't wait to do it again!

September seems to be the month of parties...I'll give you one guess as to what is coming up next...and for those of you who have been following me for a while know that I love throwing kids parties. I can't wait to start sharing some of the details for E's 6th birthday party.

Cheated or Own Ignorance ?

a Guaranteed 20% return investment was introduced earlier and it is indeed legitimate.  But do you know it is like an offer " Give me $10 now, I will give you back $9 ".  And of course it is Guaranteed !



Gold Price is about $17,000 at the time that offer was made.  You could easily buy a 100g gold bullion at $18,000 at market rate.

A recap of the offer as below

SummaryMaximum Capital : $ 23,500
Total Return : $4,590
Rough Return : ~20%

As you can see, you are actually paying an extra of $5,500 at the beginning without realizing it.  ( If you know the gold price, you would probably NOT buying it, would you ? )

23,500 - 18,000 = 5,500

Then through out the period, they will pay you back $4,590 and yet they can keep an extra profit of about $1,000

5,500 - 4,590 = 910

Of course it is Guaranteed !  Because you already pay them the money they will pay you back.  All they need to do is to keep the extra money in a FD and they can easily honour the 'contract' they promise to pay you back.

Is that a scam ?  Well, not really.  Because they didn't really cheat or present any incorrect facts.  They will even show you the gold price at that point of time.  Gold selling price is always higher than the gold index price because traders need to pay other fees and make a profit.  

The problem is you don't know how much other gold traders are selling gold bullions at.

So the only 'trick' for a person who 'invest' into such a scheme is his own 'ignorance'.  There isn't really a crime nor fault of the business here.  It always PAY to be IGNORANT.  And this is the best real life lesson you can get.  After all, you only pay $910 for such a lesson.

Then again, almost ALL of those who invested in such a scheme STILL DO NOT UNDERSTAND what they have got into.  They will simply just get out of this scheme one day and get into another similar ones.

Fraser valley and then some...

Fraser Numbers are out. Terrible sales numbers, and MOI of 10 and yet the HPI is still robust- no kidding!

Anyway to be fair to the Fraser Valley, the prices never got as high as Vancouver so a gentle correction would make more sense.

Here is the news release:

News Release

Fraser Valley Real Estate Board

For Immediate Release: September 5, 2012

Home prices resilient despite lower sales in the Fraser Valley

SURREY, BC – In August, sales on the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) ranked the third lowest for the month in the last decade – after 2008 and 2010.

Last month’s 1,073 property sales represent a 20 per cent decrease compared to the 1,341 sales during August of last year and 23 per cent fewer than in July. In 2008, the Board processed 910 sales in August, and in 2010, 997.

“It was a slower August, but nowhere near historical lows for our Board so it’s too soon to tell if it’s a sign of a longer‐term trend or if buyers and sellers in the Fraser Valley finally enjoyed a bit of summer,” explains Scott Olson, FVREB president. “We do know that our economy currently remains fundamentally strong with stable mortgage and employment rates; and, our region in particular has some of the fastest growing communities in the Lower Mainland.”

Olson says, “And we’re seeing evidence of that growth in the sales of more affordable, attached properties in the Fraser Valley. For example in August, apartment sales went up significantly in Central Surrey and Abbotsford and remained on par in North Surrey and Cloverdale compared to last year, suggesting that first‐time buyers are continuing to find opportunities.”

Similar to sales, the Board saw a decrease in new listings. We received 2,406 in August, a decrease of 8 per cent compared to August 2011 and 18 per cent less than we received in July. This caused the number of active listings to decrease month‐over‐month, however the 10,366 active listings at month end still remained 3 per cent higher than the 10,074 listings available in August 2011.

Across the Fraser Valley, the benchmark price of a single family detached house in August was $551,400, an increase of 3.5 per cent compared to $532,700 in August 2011.

For townhouses, the benchmark price in August was $303,000, a decrease of 0.7 per cent compared to $305,200 during the same month last year. The benchmark price of apartments in Fraser Valley in August was $206,600, an increase of 3.4 per cent compared to $199,800 in August 2011.

Olson adds, “Overall, we’re seeing prices stay resilient, however in almost half of our communities, the three‐ month trend is showing a decrease in prices while the other half is showing increases so for a detailed market analysis, check with your local REALTOR®.”

Here is the whole stats package, look how far into buyer's market the sales stats are (the second graph)

.......................

HAM, HAM where for are't though?

Our markets have been HAM deficient for the last few months, which explains the absolute collapse in sales in West Van, Westside and Richmond. 

The Chinese stock market has been at a 52 week low, their economy has been under strain and Canada has finally started extraditing big fraudsters who found permanent refuge here.

Maybe this will change somewhat. The Chinese leader just announced a huge infrastructure spending package and their market reversed the downturn and rocketed up 2.5% in one day. We will have to see if this reignites the easy money buyers into our markets.

Robert Shiller hammers Vancouver home prices

In his usual rather gentle and non-dogmatic way

Worth listening to. Lets hope the link works, BNN links tend to be hit and miss.