Wednesday, March 31, 2010
E's Space Themed Room
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
How To Double salary in 10 years, country wise.
Monday, March 29, 2010
Could the CHMC bankrupt us?
There are a few interesting facts I have been able to glean from the net:
The CHMC liabilities are probably not far shy of $500 Billion or about 40% of the total GDP of Canada.
This come from this excellent report which I would encourage everyone to read. At least read page 21-27 on the CHMC. You can find it on this site- about half way down, March 22nd, Canadian Housing Bubble Trouble looms.
http://jugglingdynamite.com/
(hat-tip to Hosuing Analysis)
The CHMC is insuring 90% of all insured (and therefore high risk) mortgages. Why are we in the business of insuring mortgages again? Could someone remind me.
Our total debt is $700 Billion:
http://www.ndir.com/SI/education/debt.shtml
So as you can see it wouldn't take much of a correction for the feds to have to step in and soak it up for the CHMC losses.
Meanhwile Mish has some comparisons between near-bankrupt California and solvent Ontario which makes the fomer look better!
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/03/california-usa-vs-ontario-canada-which_29.html
As for our banks, no wonder they are doing so well, when the CHMC is underwiting the risk. this is from the NYT no less!:
http://baselinescenario.com/2010/03/25/the-canadian-banking-fallacy/
This is not a bash-Canada post. I am a patriot, that's why I want strong accountable insitutions, sustainability and common sense.
We have already seen the US shoot themselves in the head, by allowing Freddie and Fannie to pile on the debt and liability and then transfer that to the tax-payer. Meanwhile the executives and all the bank CEOs all got huge bonuses like they were all doing a good job- did anyone pay them back?
Why are we doing the same thing? Didn't we learn anything? The problem is transferring private debt and liability to the public sector, when the profits were all enjoyed by the private sector. That isn't capitalism or even socialism, it is just bad public policy.
Thrift Store Finds
So I thought I would post some things I picked up at a local thrift store. Have some great ideas up my sleeves for these goodies:o)
I got 2 large drum lamp shades, a galvanized bucket, some doo-hicky that you can hang something on, a cutting board with a ceramic inlay, a punched tin candle holder, and a cup that says Isabella(for a little girl at church). All of this for $17. Can't wait to start transforming these puppies:o)
Saturday, March 27, 2010
Where are we now?
“I had a wealthy corporate citizen in Vancouver who wouldn’t buy in the Shangri-La because it didn’t have separate elevators for the staff,” says Mr. Rennie, who was shocked."
Friday, March 26, 2010
Teaser for E's Room
Thursday, March 25, 2010
Very Busy!
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Beverage Container
We had used this in E's room at the last house when he had the beach themed room. I put all his little stuffed animals in it. I think I paid $4.99 for it from Tuesday Morning. Anyway, it's current location was hiding in one of the closets with baby toys that I planned on getting rid of. You know what's next, don't ya? Off to Wally World for some spray paint. The beverage container at Target had a hammered copper finish, so I used two coats of Rustoleum's version and got this:
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Pottery Barn Inspired Mirror
Monday, March 22, 2010
Pottery Barn Inspired Number Pillows
Sunday, March 21, 2010
2010 Inflation vs life style change
Saturday, March 20, 2010
Real Estate Ville
We are definitely RE City. How do I come by that?
Firstly as an industry RE is probably the biggest employer in this City. Realtors, Mortgage brokers (independent and bank), Appraisers, residential construction workers, renovators, sub-contractors, RE papers, Notaries, RE Lawyers ...add it all up and I think it beats every other industry hands down. And this is one of the main reasons why this bubble has got to be kept inflated at all costs..future be damned.
In fact I would go so far as to say one of our major exports is Real Estate too. How so? Take a walk past the fancy buildings in Coal Harbour one evening at 9pm, and you will see that only 20% of the lights are on. What's happening in the other 80%. Maybe they spent so much on the apartment that they are trying to save money by living in the dark.
However the truth is, they are absentee owners. I was told that one building was marketed in Hong Kong before it was even marketed here. Most of the units were sold, and several years after opening, many owners still haven't come to look at their units, but have an agent here to take care of it. In fact very country in the world is represented; South Africa, Australia, the Middle East and of course plenty of US owners.
This is the natural result of becoming a desirable city with strong property laws in a safe country. It happened in London and New York and Toronto. Lots of absentee owners. It hasn't happened in Winnipeg yet, or Des Moines.
It is the same as Canucks owning property in Palm Desert, the only difference is Palm Desert is sorrounded by, well endless desert, which can be watered and planted with grass and voila- another golf course to build homes around- and we aren't.
I recently looked at a Townhouse for rent. The agent told me he had investors from Toronto and the Far East who owned several town-houses and apartments EACH, all bought with cash. Unless things get really bad, these don't sound to me like they would be the desperate-sellers-of-the-future.Not only is RE the big cheese here, it is almost the whole cheese. Now that Natural gas has taken such a tumble, the government needs a robust RE market for revenues. Each transaction generates many thousands in direct and indirect taxes and economic activity.
Everyone talks about it. How many dinner parties have I been to where half the discussion is about RE. It is quite bizarre. No one talks about RE in California anymore, or so I am told. But for us, it is all consuming.
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I see David Dodge is extolling Canadians to save more and borrow less, or face the dire consequences. Eh, David..save and do what with it? Put it in the bank and get 0.25%?? Put it in the stock-market which goes up 50% one year and down 60% the next? Or leave it under the mattress and wait for the government to devalue money even more??
If you want people to save more and borrow less...INCREASE THE INTEREST RATES. I would have thought that was obvious.
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Ok folks we are heading into the last 10 days of March. the market is starting to wobble a bit. This could be the start of the down-slope. I would not expect another Hail Mary drop like we had in 2008, but a more gradual decline which will exasperate bears and bulls alike.
And that is only a maybe. It depends on what happens with interest rates, with the stock-market and commodities, with the Chinese economy, and with unemployment.
However with the current confluence of factors:
HST
Tighter Mortgage Rules
Post Olympic Fizzle
Lowest ever interest rates
Provincial Government cutting jobs and more to come
Terrible Affordability
If we don't get a down-turn, then we will have to wait for the asteroid in 2012.
Friday, March 19, 2010
Feature Friday
Thursday, March 18, 2010
Stay Tuned!
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Ceramic Chalkboard Platter
I couldn't find the picture for the "inspiration" for today's post, but here is my finished product.
Monday, March 15, 2010
Why are analysts so often wrong?
“As we settle in to a post recession economic environment and bask in the benefits from our Olympic legacies, take comfort in knowing that during the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, the Vancouver housing market suffered only a few bumps and bruises, and the healing process is now complete.”
I have nothing against Cameron, in fact we would probably have a good talk about economics over a beer. However I cannot see how anyone can make any predictions, when so many unknowns exist out there.
It is lucky that analysts aren't held to their predictions, unlike..say bridge engineers or aeroplane designers.
Lets think about us bears. We have been looking at affordability as our main measure.
It hit all time lows in 2008 and os we reasonably expected a proper correction. Especially as the financial world started to unravel.
It started and then the government panicked and dropped rates to all time lows, ever, never before seen. Ergo the affordability went up again. The industry..developers, RE brokers, mortgage brokers, CHMC, banks- all rejigged their numbers and showed buyers how much more they could afford. The party was off again and we are now at all time highs in most parts of Canada.
Who could have possibly forecast it?
Lets look at the variables -we are in a worldwide recession where large banks were saved from bankruptcy, the US has over 10% unemployment, we have 2% higher unemployment than 2008, the Federal and Provincial governments have brought down huge deficit budgets and we are still heading into huge debt for the foreseeable future, Ontario's manufacturing sector is in trouble, Alberta lost 15,000 jobs last month, large countries like Greece are on the verge on defaulting, to be followed by many more...etc etc
All these variables added up to nought!
The ONLY variable that dragged this bloated bubble out of the gutter, were the emergency rate cuts to zero (almost) and the pumping of the CHMC. It wasn't the Olympics, because the whole country has seen a rise, especially Toronto, where the Provincial debt is in worse shape than ours.
Who would have thought it?
How could an analyst have forecast that?
They can't. They look a few things and then make their best guess and sometimes they end up being right FOR TOTALLY DIFFERENT reasons!!
In any case, take all analysis on the net and from wise words from experts with a pound of salt. Look at the numbers yourself and do what feels right. Where is the pain more? Buying an over-priced asset that may go down, or watching that asset go even higher. That is the crux of the decision.
Silouhettes
I found these picture frames at a local thrift store for around $5 for the both of them. Not too shabby...not too chic though:o) One was missing the glass, so that one was a little cheaper. It looks like someone had the D.I.Y. bug and tried to spray paint these pups, and gave up.
My Craft Room
During the recovery process, I had bits of energy and wanted to get some spring cleaning done. I thought I would start in my craft room first. I can't seem to find the before pictures, but I do have the after, and I am glad I finally got around to cleaning up.