“As we settle in to a post recession economic environment and bask in the benefits from our Olympic legacies, take comfort in knowing that during the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, the Vancouver housing market suffered only a few bumps and bruises, and the healing process is now complete.”
I have nothing against Cameron, in fact we would probably have a good talk about economics over a beer. However I cannot see how anyone can make any predictions, when so many unknowns exist out there.
It is lucky that analysts aren't held to their predictions, unlike..say bridge engineers or aeroplane designers.
Lets think about us bears. We have been looking at affordability as our main measure.
It hit all time lows in 2008 and os we reasonably expected a proper correction. Especially as the financial world started to unravel.
It started and then the government panicked and dropped rates to all time lows, ever, never before seen. Ergo the affordability went up again. The industry..developers, RE brokers, mortgage brokers, CHMC, banks- all rejigged their numbers and showed buyers how much more they could afford. The party was off again and we are now at all time highs in most parts of Canada.
Who could have possibly forecast it?
Lets look at the variables -we are in a worldwide recession where large banks were saved from bankruptcy, the US has over 10% unemployment, we have 2% higher unemployment than 2008, the Federal and Provincial governments have brought down huge deficit budgets and we are still heading into huge debt for the foreseeable future, Ontario's manufacturing sector is in trouble, Alberta lost 15,000 jobs last month, large countries like Greece are on the verge on defaulting, to be followed by many more...etc etc
All these variables added up to nought!
The ONLY variable that dragged this bloated bubble out of the gutter, were the emergency rate cuts to zero (almost) and the pumping of the CHMC. It wasn't the Olympics, because the whole country has seen a rise, especially Toronto, where the Provincial debt is in worse shape than ours.
Who would have thought it?
How could an analyst have forecast that?
They can't. They look a few things and then make their best guess and sometimes they end up being right FOR TOTALLY DIFFERENT reasons!!
In any case, take all analysis on the net and from wise words from experts with a pound of salt. Look at the numbers yourself and do what feels right. Where is the pain more? Buying an over-priced asset that may go down, or watching that asset go even higher. That is the crux of the decision.
