Saturday, December 10, 2011

A few thoughts

Here is the HPI for Vancouver

As you can see some areas are already fraying, eg the Sunshine Coast which is down 11% from 3 years ago and nearly 3% from 5 years ago. That means someone who bought with cash would be down 3% + five years of inflation..say 12%= 15% in real terms.

Big, leveraged purchases that drop in value really hurt!

Here is the site

Here are the numbers from the REBGV


Greater Vancouver$890,2041.4$890,561262.911.433.637.5
Maple Ridge$448,3153.4$448,564204.
New Westminster$683,5034.2$659,143281.713.526.733.0
North Vancouver$985,7312.9$970,670246.211.031.726.3
Pitt Meadows$520,4169.0$523,738213.6-0.67.521.5
Port Coquitlam$581,5025.1$554,671245.85.212.921.4
Port Moody$751,34515.4$768,754225.94.429.817.4
South Delta$686,4304.9$718,209224.311.221.019.8
Sunshine Coast$374,5027.1$399,287213.1-6.7-11.2-2.7
Vancouver East$863,1832.4$853,701292.415.942.646.3
Vancouver West$2,019,9262.7$2,019,783335.218.981.081.5
West Vancouver$1,759,6164.2$1,723,444259.223.937.146.4
December is a quiet month. No one lists near Christmas unless they are desperate, however people still buy to get a new place for the New Year, so stats may be skewed to a high sales/list ration. January will tell the tale.

When we look at Larry's average price chart, it looks like we are in a consolidation period like a mini 2008. This could resolve up or down. I have no idea.

We could get another run up if the Bank of Canada cuts rates and the Federal government loses it's nerve again and pumps up the CMHC monster again, despite all the recent rhetoric, or if the HAM money comes in ever bigger amounts perhaps driven by fear of political uncertainty at home.

However, just as easily, we could see it drop down and if so it could be quite precipitous. It is far too tough to call, we will have to wait for the data.

What we do know there have been some major price drops in Victoria, the Sunshine Coast and the Okanagan. The Fraser Valley is flat. Vancouver is the last domino to fall (or not!)