Friday, June 29, 2012

On the Cusp

Take a look at the REBGV Average Price Chart.

It is the same as Larry Yatter's, except Larry comes out with his much sooner.

Well we are at a crucial point IMVHO. We had a nice double top in 2011 which matched the 2010 top. Now what will June's numbers bring. If we break decisively below the bottoms of 2010 and 2011, I think the mood will change in RE in this town and we will be in a correction mode.

We are in a different environment from the bottoms of 2010 and 2011. The Government has come to it's senses and reined in the CMHC's excesses, we have a slow-down in China, a recognition that buy and dump by off-shore money and out of Province money for that matter, is a bad thing (though no one knows what to do about it), a resource sector that has come under pressure- but still rock bottom interest rates.

If interest rates had gone up too, we would be facing a cliff drop, which we do not want. That would take the Province and City into a tail-spin and would bring more ill-thought action from the politicians responding to the pain of the home-owners. 

We want a gradual and sensible correction. at least of us who don't want to see our friends, neighbours and Government in severe financial stress.

Of course the market cares little about what we want, and will take it's own course. 

We will know in a few days.

Happy Canada Day!