Monday, July 1, 2013

Parsing Larry's numbers

Kudos for the hundredth time to Larry for getting the numbers out so soon.

What do we find for June.

1) The ramp up in sales we noted here and elsewhere is reflected in the numbers. Sales are up quite a bit from June 2012. Inventory is pretty flat YOY except for apartments.

2) Average price (which always shows a lot of noise) showed SFH taking a big 4% drop. However apartments have gone the other way showing a big jump from last month.

What can we deduce from these numbers.

With a lower average and yet sales were up. This would suggest that the lower end of the market was more active this month, maybe on interest rate fears. The higher end is unlikely to be much concerned whether the interest rate is 2.6 or 3.2 % , you can either afford a $4 Million house or you can't.

Last June was a very weak month, this June was more resilient. As I said in the last post, this is crunch time. Is this yet another rebound or was this just an interest rate panic.

MOI Attached 5.6
MOI Apartment 6.3