Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Fall is darker and more gloomy

The optimism of summer has passed, reality is sinking in. An Angus Reid poll showed Canadians more concerned about their finances and work situation than July, even though the stock market and commodities and RE have been strong in the last two months.

I think people are realising that, while we will not have an-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it scenario, things are NOT back to normal. The economies of the world have only been prevented from falling off the cliff by the tax-payers assuming a large portion of the private sector's debt obligations.

If people are more concerned about their finances they will reign in spending and we will have another round of pressure on assets world-wide.
I don't think we have had enough of a purge to make up for the years of excess.

BTW here is Mish's thoughts on Canada's/Vancouver's RE:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/09/mish-mailbag-how-does-one-tell-if.html
He is saying the same things us bears have been saying for some time.
Inventory does seem to be moving up as the list/sell number drops.