Saturday, September 26, 2009

September 2009 Projections

The Fish has invited me to post GVREB MLS monthly projections on his blog. I'll try to post weekly updates on Friday/Saturday plus an end-of-month final summary. It may take a couple tries to tune my format to suit the blog and it's audience. Feedback is welcome.

These projections are based on a linear model driven by the daily stats published by Gavin Hughes ( I also need to credit Canadian from RE talks for initiating these projections and Jesse for helping to fill in missing historic data.

The intent of these posts is to get an early or predictive feel for how the month's numbers may end up, and discuss the impact and ramifications to our local real estate market. Please remember, that all models are wrong, but some models can be useful.

Projection from25-Sep-2009: 17 of 21 days

Listings:5614(-9% yoy)(+24% mom)
Sales:3547(+124% yoy)(+3% mom)
Sell/List:63%(+37 pp yoy)(-13 pp mom)
MOI:3.8(-71% yoy)(+2% mom)
Actives:13,643(-35% yoy)(+5% mom)
Rate of Increase:
46 per day

Avg Price SFH:$857,048 (+8.5% yoy)(-3.7% mom)(-6.9% from peak)
Avg Price Condo:$434,517 (+7.3% yoy)(+3.0% mom)(-3.5% from peak)
5-day Average SFH:$911,863 (+6.4% from current month)
5-day Average Condo:$423,588 (-2.5% from current month)

Median Price SFH:$701,271
(+0.8% mom)
Median price Condo:$375,051
(+0.4% mom)

Month to date:

Total Listings:4545(Avg 267 per day)
Total Sales:2871(Avg 169 per day)

We're still seeing very strong sales for this time of year, but new listings are on the rise. September will have the highest monthly total of new listings this year.

It looks like we have more sellers trying to take advantage of the recent price increases and sales activity. If sales hold up this fall, we may be able to reach an awkward balance. If sales decline and listings remain high, prices may begin to recede. This fall will be a good test of the strength of the market.

Note: Missing data for September 21. (Not published by Gavin). Baseline numbers will be posted in the comments.

* Disclaimer: These projections are not produced or endorsed by the REBGV.