Thursday, May 2, 2013

REBGV Stats April highlights- Eye opening!

 A refreshingly honest appraisal of the situation IMO.

"The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in Greater Vancouver reached 2,627 on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in April 2013. This represents a 6.1 per cent decrease compared to the 2,799 sales recorded in April 2012"

"Last month’s sales equate to the lowest April total in the region since 2001 and 20.9 per cent below the 10-year sales average for the month."

"The total number of properties listed for sale on the MLS® in Greater Vancouver is 16,730, a 1.2 per cent increase compared to April 2012"

"The sales-to-active-listings ratio currently sits at 15.7 per cent in Greater Vancouver. This is the second consecutive month that this ratio has been above 15 per cent. Previous to this, May 2012 was the last time this ratio was above 15 per cent"

I had posted that from what I had seen the median (hence benchmark with which it should approximate) was down. REBGV has noted this. Kudos to them for not fudging. Some RE boards which shall go un-named have average and median down and yet the benchmark UP! That would seem mathematically impossible.

"The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver is currently $597,300. This represents a decline of 3.9 per cent compared to this time last year "

"The benchmark price for detached properties decreased 5.2 per cent from April 2012 to $914,000."

"The benchmark price of an apartment property decreased 2.6 per cent from April 2012 to $365,900"

"The benchmark price of an attached unit decreased 3.5 per cent between April 2012 and 2013 to $455,200"

Have a look at the areas for 5 year return. You will be shocked. Some are in a world of pain with -10% or lower returns. No surprises...Whistler (look at apartments down 40%!), Maple Ridge, Bowen (which was being priced as West Van alternative), West Van apartments, Squamish. 

Only Van Est and Van West are (barely) positive for apartment benchmark over 5 years. The meme of rising prices can no longer be maintained. Absent some lunacy from the policy-makers or a resurgence of Chinese buying (which will only effect certain areas) we are on a clear downward path. The weakness is coming in from the periphery and we have lower jobs and lower commodities to add into the mix. Do we want a! Do we want an end to the insane prices..yes!

The whole package is here