Friday, May 10, 2013

The Lay of the Land

So where are we now?

We are at decade high inventory.
We are at a MOI of about 6 +/-
We have 3% +/- rates
We have the CMHC with new executives and new restrictions, thank Goodness.
We have a Government who talks the talk, but is still slow and short on action.
Lets see whether they will cut back on amortizations to under 30 years as Garth has promised us.

Recently I have seen some increased Chinese Mainland buying of higher end properties. It always baffles me how a resident of a country that only allows outflows $50K a year per person, can throw down $5 Million on one transaction AND Presumably that is just part of the money they brought here.

Of course the effect of this money is very local, though there will be a trickle down effect into other areas. We will have to see whether this is the start of a new buying spree or just a blip

It is no where near the buying of 2011 which was a frenzy, but there is a little trickle so far.

There are also some well heeled local buyers coming into the market. A few sporadic buys, especially if sellers drop below asking. A recent sale in West Van that sat unsold for many months at Assessed, went quickly once the sellers dropped to $200K under assessed. The MOI is still very high in West Van and Van West.

There are also middle buyers coming into the market. It seems like a 5% drop and lo rates is enough for some people to think they are getting a bargain, or maybe they have other incentives for buying (inheritance etc). rates are low. 3% across the board or less.

As to our local economy, we have seen some significant commodity weakness. Base metals, Gold and Silver have all taken a hit and that will take some of air out of our local promoter crowd. However if the commodity weakness persists, then we are looking at some serious economic weakness in BC which will dampen demand further. Our jobs numbers have been all over the place with a big loss last month and a big gain this...

Sales should start to taper off over the summer months and once again the MOI will start to rise. Now we will see how firm prices are. The trend is still down, but needs confirmation.